Next Generation Challenges in Energy and Climate Modelling

On the 26th and 27th of September 2024, I attended the "Next Generation Challenges in Energy and Climate Modelling" workshop hosted online by the University of Reading. The aim of this two-day event was to bring together researchers in the field of energy system modelling through engaging and interactive sessions.

 

The first afternoon kicked off with a series of expert talks. Julie Lundquist from Johns Hopkins University opened with a presentation on how climate impacts energy systems, focusing primarily on the United States. Next, Laurent Stoop from the Netherlands' Transmission System Operator (TSO), TenneT, presented models and decision-making tools that can be useful for TSOs in general. Afterward, Grant Buster from the US National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) gave a fascinating talk on the role of AI in climate and energy modelling. He also showcased a project at NREL that uses AI to search through a repository of documents and reports the lab has published. The final presentation came from Mathilde Ungerovich from Uruguay’s TSO (ADME), who discussed optimizing energy dispatch in Uruguay.

Following a brief Q&A with the presenters, we switched platforms from Zoom to Gather.town—a tool combining video calls with a 2D virtual environment for more interactive engagement. I’ve used Gather.town before, and I think it's great for webinars like this because it makes moving between conversations easy and natural. The switch was made because the second half of the day featured a poster session, where I had the opportunity to present my own research. I ended up discussing my work with around ten people from different universities, some of whom I had met earlier at EGU2024. I also had the chance to interact with researchers whose publications I’ve read, like Karin van der Wiel and Hannah Bloomfield. Tailoring my presentation to each person’s level of understanding was a bit tricky—some were new to the topic of renewable energy droughts, so I spent more time on the basics, while others were already familiar and focused more on the results. Overall, it was a rewarding experience with some great discussions.

 

The poster I presented

The second afternoon brought us back to Zoom for a series of six workshops led by various researchers. I joined the session on “Methods for Climate Effects in Energy System Models,” organized by Matteo de Felice and Leonard Göke. This two-part workshop introduced us to the basics of energy and climate system modelling using Python or Julia scripts. Matteo gave an overview of energy system modelling, showing us how to create a simple power network using PyPSA, a Python package. This was my first exposure to this kind of work, and I found it both fascinating and potentially useful for my PhD research. Leonard then introduced a more advanced topic—using stochastic optimization in energy system modelling. This was completely new to me, but it definitely piqued my interest.

Overall, I found the workshop both insightful and engaging. What I appreciated the most was the opportunity to connect with other researchers working on similar topics. It was a great experience and I look forward to continuing these collaborations in the future.

Boris

EMS 2024

This year, I attended my first annual European Meteorological Society (EMS) annual meeting. The conference was held in Barcelona and lasted for the entire first week of September, with up to five parallel sessions at a time. My attendance to this conference also allowed me to attend the EMS general assembly on the Sunday prior to the start of the conference as a representative of the Irish Meteorological Society.

When I got to the venue on Sunday, I greeted people by the door, introduced myself, and asked them where they were from. I was there representing the Irish Meteorological Society because no other more senior member could attend, so imagine my surprise when they told me they came from Ireland. They urged me to take a seat at the table, as I was the one representing Ireland. This is how I met Paul Halton, the former head of numerical modelling at Met Éireann.

The general assembly was quite interesting to attend. The first part of it was centered on very administrative parts such as the approval of the minutes from the previous meeting or a review of the accounts. Then, a few interesting ongoing projects and progressions were discussed. First, the EMS is planning to reach net zero emissions by 2040, which has implications for the coming years for anyone on EMS business, as well as on the selection of future locations. A part of these measures include the pledge to work with publishers to reach net-zero emissions in publications. Along these lines, the Journal for the EMS is being launched with Elsevier, who have a net zero pledge by 2040, and researchers are being encouraged to submit their articles to this new journal.

Perhaps the most interesting part of the general assembly was the discussion on the EMS webinar series. Since March of this year, a monthly webinars have been held in an effort to maintain the EMS alive all through the year and not only during the annual meetings. This project will be ongoing, as a full year of running the program might be needed to assess its success. We split into working groups to explore possible topics or speakers and then shared them amongst all attendees, trying to give a hand to the person in charge. Previous webinars tried to bridge the gap between meteorology and other disciplines such as art or archaeology, and suggestions ranged from doing webinars along the lines of the plenary talks in the conference, to more career-oriented ones that show students of meteorology possible work opportunities, especially outside of academia.

The session followed with a review of the so-called "terminology project", an initiative of some societies to get a glossary of meteorological terms in different languages. Despite individual glossaries in different societies that explain terms used in their language, the idea of putting it all together does not seem to be moving forward, but societies did agree that the glossaries in each individual language may just be enough. After establishing the agenda for the 2025 general assembly and announcing next year's location in Ljubljana, Slovenia, the general assembly closed and we headed for some snacks, as we headed to the ice breaker a while later.

The talks with the other representatives of meteorological societies, as well as people I knew and people I had just met were very entertaining. Perhaps the most interesting thing I learned was that the president of the Danish meteorological society has a weather station near the Arctic. I also learned that the EMS was hosted in Dublin in 2017, and that one of the presents to attendees was, of course, an umbrella.

Monday started the week of scientific contributions. I first attended an invited talk from a former colleague, who discussed the evolution of the atmospheric boundary layer during a long-term drought period in a semi-arid environment. The session on boundary layer meteorology was interesting, but after the coffee break, I spent the rest of the day attending a session on deriving actionable information from climate data, which gave me some ideas on how to present a part of my research, especially when aiming to a wider audience.

On Tuesday, parallel sessions were all equally far away from my work yet interesting to me. I ended up attending talks on cities and urban areas in the earth-atmosphere system, followed by some sessions on mountain meteorology. I learned some things from both of them. In terms of cities, I learned that there is something called the luxury effect, which basically links the hotter areas in a city to the lower income. Now, this did not apply to Madrid (the case study in the presentation), as the city center is filled with high-income people while being the hottest part of the city. Along these lines, the role of parks came up a few times because they act as thermal regulators. In terms of mountain meteorology, there are still problems with the Monin-Obukhov similarity theory, particularly on non-flat terrain, but from what I saw the community has not managed to find a better alternative yet.

Wednesday brought with it the sessions on communication, both in terms of how to communicate uncertainties to the public and on media. The first part on uncertainties was fantastic, with talks discussing how we use ensembles, and how the general public understands probability more than we give them credit for. It was quite enlightening to see the type of experiments being done on this front, and how responses from the public are positive when we perform our job of communicating the uncertainty adequately, especially when the impacts of the forecasts are also discussed. Additionally, I learned a lot about what people in different European institutions are doing in terms of communication with the public, including an effort made from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to prevent misinformation and disinformation in the fields of weather and climate. In the afternoon, I had the opportunity to present along with a colleague a poster that I participated in about the usage of reanalysis for the study of sea breeze events.

On Thursday, the session on energy meteorology finally started, the one that contained my talk and people from my field. Unsurprisingly, the vast majority of talks were based on artificial intelligence (AI) methods to improve on the forecasting of both wind and radiation. Most of the presented results showed encouraging results in the reconstruction of time series and spatial patterns, but these were mostly methodological and did not really provide insights into the system itself. This session included my talk, which was on wind and solar ramping events in Ireland and which went great. Perhaps the most curious out of all the presentations was the one on airborne wind energy, a topic which I knew nothing about and that seemed extremely interesting and useful for remote communities.

Thursday afternoon included the poster session for the energy meteorology topic, and despite chatting to several people, I was mostly interested in three main posters. The first, explored the climatology of energy droughts in Japan by reconstructing long-term records and exploring how different planned scenarios for the combination of technologies impact these droughts. It was quite interesting because the effect of wind and solar in the seasons is quite different from the one we are observing in Ireland due to the difference in latitude, and so in climate. The second poster was an analysis of extreme renewable generation events, both on the high and low ends. The aim of this poster was to quantify them for Germany and understand the temporal and spatial patterns behind the most severe event of each type. The last poster that caught my attention discussed the effect of spatial complementarity of wind and solar farms on land with four different sites for offshore wind. Although a site could be linked to the best overall complementarity, different ones performed better for the summer and winter months. This brought up the point that although complementarity with existing installations is important, so is the one between the different new installations.

Friday was the last day of the conference and the energy meteorology was on all day. Although I was expecting three of the talks to be quite interesting based on the abstracts, unfortunately only one of them was truly applicable to my research. It was a talk from a research in the university of Reading that explained the relation between energy shortfall periods in Europe and atmospheric weather regimes. This is something that we are also interested in, so it was a fantastic presentation to attend. Some other interesting talks discussed the effect of streamlining energy variables into numerical weather prediction and the effect of stochastic probabilistic forecasting on renewable generation.

Overall, the conference was a fantastic experience of meeting new people and reconnecting with old acquaintances. It was great to represent the Irish Meteorological Society and experience what the EMS general assembly is like, as well as being on the conference itself. I would really recommend this conference to anyone interested on meteorology in itself or any of the adjacent fields, like biometeorology, agricultural meteorology, and, most importantly, energy meteorology.

Navigating the Evapotranspiration Landscape: Insights from EGU 2024

 

As a PhD student delving into the wide world of evapotranspiration (ET) mapping for Ireland, my journey led me to the centre of Vienna, Austria, for the European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly 2024 . The assembly, a gathering of 20,979 brilliant minds from 116 countries and cutting-edge research, offered a platform to explore the latest advancements in remote sensing, machine learning, and various methods pertaining to ET estimation and validation.

Under the auspices of a Met Éireann-Teagasc co-funded Walsh Ph.D. Scholarship, my research endeavours are focused on producing high-resolution gridded datasets of both Actual and Potential ET for Ireland. This ambitious objective aims to bridge critical gaps in our understanding of water flux dynamics, essential for hydrological modelling and agricultural decision-making in Ireland.

My first conference experience into this academic journey came in the form of a poster presentation in session HS6.3, titled "Evapotranspiration estimation using remote sensing and in-situ methods." Here, the stage was set to engage with fellow researchers, exchange ideas, and gain insights crucial for the progression of my doctoral journey.

As I reflect on my experience at EGU 2024, I am reminded of the insightful impact this gathering has had on better understanding the profound significance of my research. The insights gained from sessions covering a wide range of ET estimation and validation methodologies have not only enriched my understanding, but have also sparked new avenues of inquiry within my own work.

In the following sections of this blog post, I will discuss the key takeaways from the oral and poster sessions I attended, highlighting their relevance to my research objectives and the implications for my ongoing endeavours. From the evaluation of satellite-derived ET products to the integration of machine learning methods, join me on a journey to explore the challenges researchers face in ET mapping.

Session Reflection

 

Within the busy halls of the EGU 2024 General Assembly, one particular session resonated deeply with the core objectives of my research: HS6.3 - Evapotranspiration estimation using remote sensing and in-situ methods. This session, a union of multidisciplinary expertise, represented the collective endeavour to uncover the complexities of ET estimation across varying spatial scales. 

The session discussed the complex nature of ET estimation, acknowledging its crucial role in addressing pressing  challenges such as climate change, drought, precision agriculture, and sustainable water management practices. With a keen focus on leveraging cutting-edge technologies and methodologies, the session aimed to explore the diverse range of approaches employed in quantifying ET from point-scale measurements to large-scale derivations using remote sensing.

Key themes in this sessions were:

• Methodological Innovation: From artificial intelligence and machine learning to data fusion and sharpening algorithms, the session emphasised the pivotal role of technological innovation in advancing ET estimation methodologies. The fusion of physical- and process-based models with empirical/statistical methods showcased the potential for bridging different scales while accounting for method-specific uncertainties.
• Scale Dependencies and Uncertainty Management: The session provided a platform for reflecting on the scale dependencies inherent in various ET estimation approaches and strategies to mitigate uncertainties and systematic biases. By facilitating cross-scale comparisons of remote sensing, modelled, and ground-based derived ET, the session highlighted the importance of robust validation, calibration, and upscaling techniques.
• Remote Sensing Applications: Remote sensing emerged as a keystone of ET estimation, offering unparalleled insights into spatiotemporal patterns and trends. From analysing trends in ET data to exploring the physical consistency of ET estimates over diverse landscapes, the session showcased the transformative potential of satellite-based observations in informing evidence-based decision-making and sustainable water management practices.

Abstracts of Relevance

 

Offering a unique perspective on machine learning applications in ET estimation, this study by Yucong Hu et al.  presents a fundamental framework that combines unsupervised clustering methods and artificial neural networks to resemble calculations in process-based models. By discerning aerodynamics and energy processes and providing a space for potential underrepresented processes, the framework offers a novel approach to hybridising machine learning approaches and mechanisms. With a focus on interpretability and accuracy, this methodology holds promise for validating known and exploring unknown knowledge in ET estimation.

Similarly, Qingchen Xu et al., introduced a novel approach to generating high-resolution and long-term ET datasets by integrating diverse machine learning techniques and multiple ET products. By combining direct site observations and various ET datasets including remote sensing, machine learning outputs, and land surface models, the study produces fused datasets with improved spatiotemporal resolution and extended temporal coverage. This innovative data integration framework addresses the limitations of existing ET datasets, offering enhanced accuracy and applicability for global water, energy, and carbon cycle applications.

Matěj Orság et al., delve into the complexities of evaluating remote sensing-derived ET products for hydrological modelling applications. By employing a round-robin experiment and point-scale downscaling benchmarking criteria, the study aims to identify the most suitable ET products for integration into hydrological models. The exploration of different energy balance closure scenarios and the utilisation of the triple collocation method add depth to the evaluation process, highlighting the challenges and opportunities in selecting optimal ET products for assimilation approaches.

In another effort to evaluate remote sensing products, Rojin Nejad et al., investigated the spatial and temporal variability of ET estimates over Madagascar using remote sensing data. By evaluating five popular ET products and analysing their utility and accuracy across different climatic zones, the study provides valuable insights into the factors contributing to differences in ET estimates. The Budyko Curve analysis used in this research highlights the strengths and limitations of each dataset, offering a deeper understanding of ET estimation in regions with limited climate monitoring and diverse climatic conditions.

As estimating ET from remotely sensed data comes with its uncertainties, Albert Olioso et al., are focusing on the uncertainty quantification of ET estimation from remote sensing data, in their talk they introduced a multi-model, multi-data framework (EVASPA) for mapping ET and its uncertainty. By analysing uncertainties related to input variables and model formulations, the study provides insights into the sources of uncertainty in ET estimation. The proposed framework offers a systematic approach to characterising ET uncertainties, with implications for improving the accuracy and reliability of ET estimates in hydrological and climate studies.

Suhyb Salama also focused on the validation of satellite-based hydrological products and offered insights into the various statistical metrics commonly used by researchers to assess the goodness-of-fit (GoF) between satellite products' estimates and in-situ measurements. By developing a universal methodology for quantifying GoF, his study proposes a holistic measure that integrates multiple validation metrics, providing a comprehensive assessment of the accuracy of satellite-derived hydrological products. This approach addresses the challenges associated with comparing and interpreting disparate validation metrics, offering a unified framework for evaluating the fidelity of satellite-based records.

Implications for the ET4I Project

One of the highlights of my conference experience was presenting my poster in session HS6.3. The work presented in this poster is part of the broader EvapoTranspiration for Ireland (ET4I) project aiming to enhance ET modelling and develop high-resolution daily ET maps for Ireland. It focused on evaluating seven different satellite-derived ET products for Ireland by comparing them to ground-based measurements from lysimeters in four different locations in Ireland. The systematic evaluation highlighted the challenges of applying these products in regions with significant cloud cover, such as Ireland, and proposed avenues for advancing ET mapping techniques. This includes integrating machine learning with an ensemble of well-established satellite-based ET products and in-situ measurements from a recently installed extensive flux tower network (NASCO) and rescued historic lysimeter observations, to develop a high spatial and temporal resolution ET gridded dataset for Ireland.

The insights gained from the EGU 2024 sessions are positioned to have a positive impact on the approaches considered for the ET4I project. To begin with, the state-of-the-art machine learning approaches that were introduced have great potential to be utilised for the ET4I project. For instance, I could employ Yucong Hu et al.’s framework, which combines spectral clustering and artificial neural network regressions in machine learning, to resemble calculations in process-based models in the ET4I project. Alternatively, I could explore Qingchen Xu et al.’s framework, which integrates various machine learning approaches such as Automated Machine Learning, Deep Neural Network, Light Gradient Boosting Machine, and Random Forest with different available ET products to generate high-resolution, long-term ET estimates, and apply it to estimate ET in Ireland.

Additionally, I will incorporate a couple of ET products that were introduced to me by Matěj Orság et al., such as HOLAPS and GLDAS-NOAH. Furthermore, new validation tools like the Budyko framework, utilised by Rojin Najad et al., to provide insights into the validation of ET estimates, particularly in comparing observed ET values with estimates derived from models or remote sensing data, could be of great use in catchment areas. Another valuable validation tool I could utilise for deciding which ET products to include in the ensemble method is the unique GoF developed by Suhayb Salama, which integrates all validation metrics used and provides a collective measure of accuracy for satellite-derived hydrological products. Finally, in consideration of the ensemble approach, the EVASPA framework by Albert Olioso et al. could be employed to extend the ensemble modelling to a multi-model – multi-data framework, providing ET estimations along with an estimation uncertainty.

In conclusion, my participation in EGU 2024 has not only broadened my perspective on ET estimation and validation methodologies, but has also motivated me to advance my understanding of water-vegetation-atmosphere interactions in Ireland. Equipped with new insights and inspiration from the conference, I am eager to embark on the next phase of my research journey, confident in the positive impact it will have on our understanding of ET dynamics and its implications for hydrological modelling, agricultural decision-making, and sustainable water management practices in Ireland.

Stay tuned for more updates as I navigate the challenging landscape of evapotranspiration research, fueled by the insights gained from EGU 2024.

 

Haneen

References

Muhammad, H., Finkele, K., Flattery, P., Jarmain, C., Lanigan, G., and Sweeney, C.: Evapotranspiration for Ireland (ET4I): Ground-Truthing Satellite-Driven Evapotranspiration Products., EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-4530, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-4530, 2024.

Hu, Y. and Jiang, Y.: Interpretably reconstruct physical processes with combined machine learning approaches, a case study of evapotranspiration, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-20579, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-20579, 2024.

Xu, Q., Li, L., and Wei, Z.: A high-resolution (1d, 9km) and long-term (1950-2022) gridded evapotranspiration dataset, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-4278, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-4278, 2024.

Orság, M., Fischer, M., García-García, A., Peng, J., Samaniego, L., and Trnka, M.: Evaluation of remote sensing actual evapotranspiration products for hydrological modeling applications, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-19308, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-19308, 2024.

alimohammad nejad, R., D. Carrière, S., Olioso, A., and Oudin, L.: Exploring the physical consistency of evapotranspiration estimates over Madagascar using remote sensing., EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-3899, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-3899, 2024.

Olioso, A., Mwangi, S., Desrutins, H., Sobrino, J., Skoković, D., Carrière, S., Farhani, N., Etchanchu, J., Demarty, J., Hu, T., Mallick, K., Jia, A., Buis, S., Weiss, M., Ollivier, C., and Boulet, G.: Multimodel – multidata simulations for mapping evapotranspiration and its uncertainty of estimation from remote sensing data, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-13113, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-13113, 2024.

Salama, S.: Validation of satellite hydrological products: which goodness-of-fit to use?, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-15155, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-15155, 2024.

EGU 2024

I arrived in the morning right before the start of the first orals. With luck, the talk I wanted to attend was located near the entrance, so I went and listened to about 10 talks on ensemble forecasting. One of those talks was presented by Nina Horat on “Uncertainty quantification for data-driven weather models”, which is a problem that is arising in the field of AI weather forecasting to try and encompass a probabilistic view in their models. I then joined Haneen and Conor in Hall A where people were presenting their posters on evapotranspiration. In the afternoon, I attended a fascinating talk from Hannah Bloomfield, talking about energy droughts in the UK using different methodologies and giving information about future climate and energy system scenarios. She works in collaboration with the UK operating power system and uses demand as an input. It is interesting to hear what she has to say about the goals for bringing climate and energy system modellers together. 

The next day, there were no orals or posters presented that were of interest to me, so I spent the day reviewing my poster and doing some personal work. In the afternoon, I went to visit the poster Haneen was presenting, who seemed to be delighted from her afternoon after having so much feedback and conversations with other researchers. I then went to the early career scientist networking reception, where I came across some old friends from my undergraduate university in Lyon. I had a long chat with them, and we then assisted in a short course organized by scientists' rebellion activists on “igniting academic activism for urgent climate action”. 

On Wednesday, things became interesting for me, I attended the session focused on modelling renewable energy systems throughout the day. In the morning, I went to see the posters, and I talked to other fellow early career scientists working on similar subjects but focusing their attention on very specific topics. For example, some people were more interested in the economic costs, while others seemed more about the power grid itself. Finally, I met a scientist working for the national system operator in the Netherlands who evaluated different methods to assess the risk of occurrence of renewable energy droughts events. In the literature, there is no consensus on the definitions of a renewable energy drought event, and so he tried to compare different methods to see which yields better results. The oral session was in the afternoon and again, the topics presented were really specific on trying to find solutions to better model renewable energy systems. During the break, I was able to talk to Hannah and ask her a few questions about her work and how to approach certain aspects of our work. One advice she gave me is not to spend too much time on making the models perfect, as it is a never-ending pursuit. In the evening I joined Haneen, Conor, and other colleagues to have dinner in the city centre. 

The following morning, I spent more time listening to presentations about renewable energy models, ranging from the influence of meteorological variables on wind turbines to the use of machine learning to replace weather stations or even the impact of air pollutant emission on solar energy production. Hannah presented another oral on identifying how global weather patterns are responsible for renewable energy droughts in India. The methodology applied is similar to what she had presented on Monday but for large spatial scale patterns in a country. After a short lunch break, I went to the Hall 4 to display my poster. The session started at 4 p.m., so I had a bit more time to attend orals on climate science models and renewable energy research, where researchers presented methods to compare the effect of climate variables on renewable energy production. At half past three, it was finally time for me to stand next to my poster. Haneen and Conor came to see me if everything was alright and to take a picture to immortalise my first time at the EGU. For more than two hours, I spent most of my time explaining my work to different people who were passing by the poster and stopped out of interest or curiosity. Some researchers that I have seen at multiple talks and oral sessions during the week also came for this poster session, and I was able to talk to some of them. The questions I was asked the most frequently were about the choice of the models I have used and on the decision not to incorporate demand as a factor to define an energy drought. At the end of my session, I was joined by my friends, and we went to get some food to finish this long, but wonderful day. 

On the final day of the event, I spent most of my time walking around the halls to look at posters in other fields of geosciences that were presented such as cryosphere, atmospheric science, natural hazards, future climate, oceanography, etc…, to understand the diversity at the EGU. 

For my first time at the EGU, I had a wonderful experience with the amount of people I was able to discuss with. I also tried to catch which other universities or laboratories were interested in similar topics. Conor asked me if I would like to present my work in an oral presentation for this kind of expert audience, and I think I would like to at some point, but not right now as my project is still not mature enough.

To finish, here are some picture I took at the EGU.

 

Boris