Monday 14 October 2024

Next Generation Challenges in Energy and Climate Modelling

On the 26th and 27th of September 2024, I attended the "Next Generation Challenges in Energy and Climate Modelling" workshop hosted online by the University of Reading. The aim of this two-day event was to bring together researchers in the field of energy system modelling through engaging and interactive sessions.
 
The first afternoon kicked off with a series of expert talks. Julie Lundquist from Johns Hopkins University opened with a presentation on how climate impacts energy systems, focusing primarily on the United States. Next, Laurent Stoop from the Netherlands' Transmission System Operator (TSO), TenneT, presented models and decision-making tools that can be useful for TSOs in general. Afterward, Grant Buster from the US National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) gave a fascinating talk on the role of AI in climate and energy modelling. He also showcased a project at NREL that uses AI to search through a repository of documents and reports the lab has published. The final presentation came from Mathilde Ungerovich from Uruguay’s TSO (ADME), who discussed optimizing energy dispatch in Uruguay.

Following a brief Q&A with the presenters, we switched platforms from Zoom to Gather.town—a tool combining video calls with a 2D virtual environment for more interactive engagement. I’ve used Gather.town before, and I think it's great for webinars like this because it makes moving between conversations easy and natural. The switch was made because the second half of the day featured a poster session, where I had the opportunity to present my own research. I ended up discussing my work with around ten people from different universities, some of whom I had met earlier at EGU2024. I also had the chance to interact with researchers whose publications I’ve read, like Karin van der Wiel and Hannah Bloomfield. Tailoring my presentation to each person’s level of understanding was a bit tricky—some were new to the topic of renewable energy droughts, so I spent more time on the basics, while others were already familiar and focused more on the results. Overall, it was a rewarding experience with some great discussions.
 

The poster I presented




The second afternoon brought us back to Zoom for a series of six workshops led by various researchers. I joined the session on “Methods for Climate Effects in Energy System Models,” organized by Matteo de Felice and Leonard Göke. This two-part workshop introduced us to the basics of energy and climate system modelling using Python or Julia scripts. Matteo gave an overview of energy system modelling, showing us how to create a simple power network using PyPSA, a Python package. This was my first exposure to this kind of work, and I found it both fascinating and potentially useful for my PhD research. Leonard then introduced a more advanced topic—using stochastic optimization in energy system modelling. This was completely new to me, but it definitely piqued my interest.

Overall, I found the workshop both insightful and engaging. What I appreciated the most was the opportunity to connect with other researchers working on similar topics. It was a great experience and I look forward to continuing these collaborations in the future.

Boris

Wednesday 18 September 2024

EMS 2024

This year, I attended my first annual European Meteorological Society (EMS) annual meeting. The conference was held in Barcelona and lasted for the entire first week of September, with up to five parallel sessions at a time. My attendance to this conference also allowed me to attend the EMS general assembly on the Sunday prior to the start of the conference as a representative of the Irish Meteorological Society.

When I got to the venue on Sunday, I greeted people by the door, introduced myself, and asked them where they were from. I was there representing the Irish Meteorological Society because no other more senior member could attend, so imagine my surprise when they told me they came from Ireland. They urged me to take a seat at the table, as I was the one representing Ireland. This is how I met Paul Halton, the former head of numerical modelling at Met Éireann.

The general assembly was quite interesting to attend. The first part of it was centered on very administrative parts such as the approval of the minutes from the previous meeting or a review of the accounts. Then, a few interesting ongoing projects and progressions were discussed. First, the EMS is planning to reach net zero emissions by 2040, which has implications for the coming years for anyone on EMS business, as well as on the selection of future locations. A part of these measures include the pledge to work with publishers to reach net-zero emissions in publications. Along these lines, the Journal for the EMS is being launched with Elsevier, who have a net zero pledge by 2040, and researchers are being encouraged to submit their articles to this new journal.

Perhaps the most interesting part of the general assembly was the discussion on the EMS webinar series. Since March of this year, a monthly webinars have been held in an effort to maintain the EMS alive all through the year and not only during the annual meetings. This project will be ongoing, as a full year of running the program might be needed to assess its success. We split into working groups to explore possible topics or speakers and then shared them amongst all attendees, trying to give a hand to the person in charge. Previous webinars tried to bridge the gap between meteorology and other disciplines such as art or archaeology, and suggestions ranged from doing webinars along the lines of the plenary talks in the conference, to more career-oriented ones that show students of meteorology possible work opportunities, especially outside of academia.

The session followed with a review of the so-called "terminology project", an initiative of some societies to get a glossary of meteorological terms in different languages. Despite individual glossaries in different societies that explain terms used in their language, the idea of putting it all together does not seem to be moving forward, but societies did agree that the glossaries in each individual language may just be enough. After establishing the agenda for the 2025 general assembly and announcing next year's location in Ljubljana, Slovenia, the general assembly closed and we headed for some snacks, as we headed to the ice breaker a while later.

The talks with the other representatives of meteorological societies, as well as people I knew and people I had just met were very entertaining. Perhaps the most interesting thing I learned was that the president of the Danish meteorological society has a weather station near the Arctic. I also learned that the EMS was hosted in Dublin in 2017, and that one of the presents to attendees was, of course, an umbrella.

Monday started the week of scientific contributions. I first attended an invited talk from a former colleague, who discussed the evolution of the atmospheric boundary layer during a long-term drought period in a semi-arid environment. The session on boundary layer meteorology was interesting, but after the coffee break, I spent the rest of the day attending a session on deriving actionable information from climate data, which gave me some ideas on how to present a part of my research, especially when aiming to a wider audience.

On Tuesday, parallel sessions were all equally far away from my work yet interesting to me. I ended up attending talks on cities and urban areas in the earth-atmosphere system, followed by some sessions on mountain meteorology. I learned some things from both of them. In terms of cities, I learned that there is something called the luxury effect, which basically links the hotter areas in a city to the lower income. Now, this did not apply to Madrid (the case study in the presentation), as the city center is filled with high-income people while being the hottest part of the city. Along these lines, the role of parks came up a few times because they act as thermal regulators. In terms of mountain meteorology, there are still problems with the Monin-Obukhov similarity theory, particularly on non-flat terrain, but from what I saw the community has not managed to find a better alternative yet.

Wednesday brought with it the sessions on communication, both in terms of how to communicate uncertainties to the public and on media. The first part on uncertainties was fantastic, with talks discussing how we use ensembles, and how the general public understands probability more than we give them credit for. It was quite enlightening to see the type of experiments being done on this front, and how responses from the public are positive when we perform our job of communicating the uncertainty adequately, especially when the impacts of the forecasts are also discussed. Additionally, I learned a lot about what people in different European institutions are doing in terms of communication with the public, including an effort made from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to prevent misinformation and disinformation in the fields of weather and climate. In the afternoon, I had the opportunity to present along with a colleague a poster that I participated in about the usage of reanalysis for the study of sea breeze events.

On Thursday, the session on energy meteorology finally started, the one that contained my talk and people from my field. Unsurprisingly, the vast majority of talks were based on artificial intelligence (AI) methods to improve on the forecasting of both wind and radiation. Most of the presented results showed encouraging results in the reconstruction of time series and spatial patterns, but these were mostly methodological and did not really provide insights into the system itself. This session included my talk, which was on wind and solar ramping events in Ireland and which went great. Perhaps the most curious out of all the presentations was the one on airborne wind energy, a topic which I knew nothing about and that seemed extremely interesting and useful for remote communities.

Thursday afternoon included the poster session for the energy meteorology topic, and despite chatting to several people, I was mostly interested in three main posters. The first, explored the climatology of energy droughts in Japan by reconstructing long-term records and exploring how different planned scenarios for the combination of technologies impact these droughts. It was quite interesting because the effect of wind and solar in the seasons is quite different from the one we are observing in Ireland due to the difference in latitude, and so in climate. The second poster was an analysis of extreme renewable generation events, both on the high and low ends. The aim of this poster was to quantify them for Germany and understand the temporal and spatial patterns behind the most severe event of each type. The last poster that caught my attention discussed the effect of spatial complementarity of wind and solar farms on land with four different sites for offshore wind. Although a site could be linked to the best overall complementarity, different ones performed better for the summer and winter months. This brought up the point that although complementarity with existing installations is important, so is the one between the different new installations.

Friday was the last day of the conference and the energy meteorology was on all day. Although I was expecting three of the talks to be quite interesting based on the abstracts, unfortunately only one of them was truly applicable to my research. It was a talk from a research in the university of Reading that explained the relation between energy shortfall periods in Europe and atmospheric weather regimes. This is something that we are also interested in, so it was a fantastic presentation to attend. Some other interesting talks discussed the effect of streamlining energy variables into numerical weather prediction and the effect of stochastic probabilistic forecasting on renewable generation.

Overall, the conference was a fantastic experience of meeting new people and reconnecting with old acquaintances. It was great to represent the Irish Meteorological Society and experience what the EMS general assembly is like, as well as being on the conference itself. I would really recommend this conference to anyone interested on meteorology in itself or any of the adjacent fields, like biometeorology, agricultural meteorology, and, most importantly, energy meteorology.

Thursday 9 May 2024

EGU 2024

I arrived in the morning right before the start of the first orals. With luck, the talk I wanted to attend was located near the entrance, so I went and listened to about 10 talks on ensemble forecasting. One of those talks was presented by Nina Horat on “Uncertainty quantification for data-driven weather models”, which is a problem that is arising in the field of AI weather forecasting to try and encompass a probabilistic view in their models. I then joined Haneen and Conor in Hall A where people were presenting their posters on evapotranspiration. In the afternoon, I attended a fascinating talk from Hannah Bloomfield, talking about energy droughts in the UK using different methodologies and giving information about future climate and energy system scenarios. She works in collaboration with the UK operating power system and uses demand as an input. It is interesting to hear what she has to say about the goals for bringing climate and energy system modellers together. 

The next day, there were no orals or posters presented that were of interest to me, so I spent the day reviewing my poster and doing some personal work. In the afternoon, I went to visit the poster Haneen was presenting, who seemed to be delighted from her afternoon after having so much feedback and conversations with other researchers. I then went to the early career scientist networking reception, where I came across some old friends from my undergraduate university in Lyon. I had a long chat with them, and we then assisted in a short course organized by scientists' rebellion activists on “igniting academic activism for urgent climate action”. 

On Wednesday, things became interesting for me, I attended the session focused on modelling renewable energy systems throughout the day. In the morning, I went to see the posters, and I talked to other fellow early career scientists working on similar subjects but focusing their attention on very specific topics. For example, some people were more interested in the economic costs, while others seemed more about the power grid itself. Finally, I met a scientist working for the national system operator in the Netherlands who evaluated different methods to assess the risk of occurrence of renewable energy droughts events. In the literature, there is no consensus on the definitions of a renewable energy drought event, and so he tried to compare different methods to see which yields better results. The oral session was in the afternoon and again, the topics presented were really specific on trying to find solutions to better model renewable energy systems. During the break, I was able to talk to Hannah and ask her a few questions about her work and how to approach certain aspects of our work. One advice she gave me is not to spend too much time on making the models perfect, as it is a never-ending pursuit. In the evening I joined Haneen, Conor, and other colleagues to have dinner in the city centre. 

The following morning, I spent more time listening to presentations about renewable energy models, ranging from the influence of meteorological variables on wind turbines to the use of machine learning to replace weather stations or even the impact of air pollutant emission on solar energy production. Hannah presented another oral on identifying how global weather patterns are responsible for renewable energy droughts in India. The methodology applied is similar to what she had presented on Monday but for large spatial scale patterns in a country. After a short lunch break, I went to the Hall 4 to display my poster. The session started at 4 p.m., so I had a bit more time to attend orals on climate science models and renewable energy research, where researchers presented methods to compare the effect of climate variables on renewable energy production. At half past three, it was finally time for me to stand next to my poster. Haneen and Conor came to see me if everything was alright and to take a picture to immortalise my first time at the EGU. For more than two hours, I spent most of my time explaining my work to different people who were passing by the poster and stopped out of interest or curiosity. Some researchers that I have seen at multiple talks and oral sessions during the week also came for this poster session, and I was able to talk to some of them. The questions I was asked the most frequently were about the choice of the models I have used and on the decision not to incorporate demand as a factor to define an energy drought. At the end of my session, I was joined by my friends, and we went to get some food to finish this long, but wonderful day. 

On the final day of the event, I spent most of my time walking around the halls to look at posters in other fields of geosciences that were presented such as cryosphere, atmospheric science, natural hazards, future climate, oceanography, etc…, to understand the diversity at the EGU. 

For my first time at the EGU, I had a wonderful experience with the amount of people I was able to discuss with. I also tried to catch which other universities or laboratories were interested in similar topics. Conor asked me if I would like to present my work in an oral presentation for this kind of expert audience, and I think I would like to at some point, but not right now as my project is still not mature enough.

To finish, here are some picture I took at the EGU.

 

Boris

Thursday 22 February 2024

National Framework for Climate Services

On the 20th of February 2024, The National Framework for Climate Services (NFCS) held its first annual meeting to present their work to multiple public and private companies. Its first and main objective is to gather and unite resources for climate user communities in Ireland.

The NFCS is developed in Ireland following the Global Framework for Climate Services introduced in 2009. Using this reference, each country can adapt the framework for their needs. Switzerland have already been developing their own version of the NFCS (National Centre for Climate Services) since 2014 and the director of the service, Angela Michiko Hama, joined us via Zoom to give an overview on their work over the past ten years.

Met Éireann, who are in charge of caring the project, divided their talk into two days. The first day, which I attended, for producers, and the second for users.

A succession of people from different companies, agencies, or universities presented their work on the different hazards that may arise in the future in floodings and landslides.

In between talks and presentation, activities were proposed and facilitated by Met the organisers. The objective of these discussions was to understand what climate producers, as ourselves, were doing and what they expected from other producers to do as well. 

The last main point of the conference, had to deal with uncertainty and how to show them. Again, they wanted to bring discussion between different actors to try and find a place where people can agree and be consistent.


Boris